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Forecasts Wrong on Warming

By S. FOX | Dec 11, 2019

In response to the Dec. 4 commentary about climate change by Bob Stern, I think it’s appropriate to ask a question regarding what the following three predictions have in common: (1) former Vice President Al Gore’s belief that the summer ice at the North Pole would disappear by the year 2013, (2) Great Britain’s Prince Charles’ opinion that the Earth would experience a catastrophic event by 2017, and (3) the dire warning by then French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius that the Earth would experience “climatic chaos” by the year 2016.

If your response was that none of the predictions came true, you are correct. And, for those who enjoy reflecting on the foolishness of trying to predict what future events await our planet, never mind whether it will rain or the sun will shine tomorrow, there is a website that contains a compilation of numerous newspaper clippings and articles dating back to 1967, along with the serious and, in hindsight, rather humorous predictions of scientists and notable government officials. The Competitive Enterprise Institute titled this rather current (Sept. 18) project “Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions.” Google it and enjoy the info.

Mr. Stern’s comment about the U.S. being responsible for producing 14 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions sounds ominous until you research the topic and discover that China’s contribution of this gas is approximately two times larger at 27.5 percent (2017) statistics. And while we in the U.S. are constantly improving technology and innovating for the purpose of reducing the harmful byproducts of our highly industrialized economy, many smaller countries, which are the contributors of the remaining 60 percent of the harmful atmospheric gases, are in their period of growth. This adds to the problem.

To reinforce this point, The Washington Post, in a Dec. 3 online article by Chris Mooney and Brady Dennis, states that while U.S. emissions for 2019 are calculated to decrease by 1.7 percent, emissions in China, India and the rest of the world are estimated to increase by 2.6, 1.8 and 0.5 percent respectively. We are shutting down our pollution contributors while the rest of the world is “turning up the heat.”

Today, the words for us are electrification, solar power and wind-driven generators. But regardless of battery size and technological advances and innovations, exclusive reliance on solar and wind generators will never produce enough electrical power to meet our growing needs. We need the new and modern renewable energy sources as well as “clean” fossil fuels and nuclear energy, which is super clean and efficient. Why is nuclear energy missing from any and all conversations? We have the know-how.

With regard to greenhouse gases being the all-powerful, evil embodiment and cause of global warming, melting polar ice caps, inundation of coastal communities, rising sea levels and the reported extinction of polar bears, there is another point of view that, if you have an open mind, is deserving of consideration. While it seems to be an exercise in futility to explore specifics about fractions of inches of sea level rise or fall vs. percentages of reduction in greenhouse gas increase or decrease because of the infinite variables of nature, what is demonstrably clear and verifiable through geological core sampling and carbon dating is that severe fluctuations in temperatures have taken place throughout the Earth’s history. And they continue today unabated.

Believing that our one country has a substantial impact on global climate changes appears to be just a smidge overconfident or misinformed. We do not control the world. A few tried during the 1940s and failed miserably.

In 2014, a book by John L. Casey titled Dark Winter: How The Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell was published. This 164-page, easy-reading book explores in clear detail how the sun periodically, and with a fair degree of regularity, goes through cycles of activity that create fluctuations in the Earth’s temperature. Mr. Casey, now retired, was a space shuttle engineer. I suggest this book for anyone with an interest in learning more about the subject of global temperatures and their changes over time.

You may also choose to Google The Saltbush Club. This is an Australian grassroots organization founded by more than 300 highly trained, well-respected and well-known professionals and scientists who have views that differ from the commonly accepted global warming theory. In addition, The Saltbush Club has a long list of more than 330 supporting members, many of whom have scientific and/or research backgrounds.

So, in spite of the heated exhortations by New York’s vocal Congresswoman Cortez that we must make immediate changes or we’re all doomed to become “well done” in 12 years, or sooner according to her supporters, take solace in knowing there are highly educated professionals who think the complete opposite. John Casey’s research predicts a slow and gradual drop in global temperatures. If Casey is correct, the next global warming period will begin in the year 2217.

I’ll enjoy the “global warming” for as long as I can. The alternative sounds too severe ... and uninhabitable. I’d like to quote W.C. Fields, as he opened a cabin door and faced a blast of wind and driven snow: “It ain’t a fit night out for man nor beast.”

S. Fox lives in Little Egg Harbor.

 

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